“BREAKING: NHS waiting lists down again, lowest level in two years.”
That’s the latest from Labour’s social media outlets, posted only hours after proper news broke yesterday that resident doctors (formerly known as junior doctors) are to go on strike over pay later this month. It won’t help.
The British Medical Association blames the government. The government blames the British Medical Association. It doesn’t matter who is at fault: the government will shoulder the reputational brunt.
Voters may have sympathy, or not, for this profession on the walkout or that. But the fault of industrial inconvenience will more often than not be laid at the feet of the government of the day. In the late 70s it wasn’t the Labour government at fault for militant trade unions walking out on reasonable offers. But it was the Labour government which oversaw it. And it was the Labour government that was punished for it.
When big personalities get involved – as opposed to faceless trade unions – things change, Think Arthur Scargill up against Margaret Thatcher. Think Bob Crow and the London Underground, or Mick Lynch and today’s RMT. Lynch was the popular personality online. But among the public he rarely had their sympathies. In 2022 the numbers enthused with Lynch paled poorly to the numbers that felt negative.
The reality is simple: where there is inconvenience, there will be blowback. But so long as no individual comes to represent the resident doctor cause, Labour will suffer. No matter how vaguely unpopular the resident doctors may be.
One poll taken in May found a notable plurality in opposition to the floated strikes.
The bad news for the doctors is that the public are remarkably well aware of the above-inflation pay rises offered them. In November last year, public sector pay-rises were, according to More in Common, more salient to the voter than the government’s riot response.
Are there any arguments that the voter may rally to the government’s side, then? It’s unlikely. In the autumn of 2016, when the previously popular junior doctors had expended almost all of its good will, blame still rested with the Conservatives. The British Medical Association were the lesser of two unpopular parties in the negotiations. I struggle to see why 2025 will be any different.
[See more: If Jake Berry is the answer then what is the question?]
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